‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ opened big and small at the same time; here is why both are true

Grogu’s big-screen return sparked mixed reactions at the box office, but fans are still showing up for the galaxy’s most beloved duo. The film’s long-term journey may matter more than its opening weekend buzz.

‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ opened big and small at the same time; here is why both are true

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‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ opened in North American theaters on Thursday, May 22, 2026. The film tallied $12 million in Thursday night preview sales, the lowest collection of advance tickets in the franchise’s history, according to data from Comscore.

This ranked as the lowest-grossing opening Thursday preview total for any Star Wars movie since 1983’s ‘Return of the Jedi’. In comparison, ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’, the franchise’s biggest prior flop, made $14.1 million in its Thursday preview.

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The slow Thursday showing put analysts and Disney executives on alert. Box office analysts expected the film to generate around $80 million for its three-day opening weekend and around $95 million for the four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Some less conservative estimates placed the three-day haul at $95 million and the holiday weekend at $115 million.

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The film and its production

‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ holds special place as first film to bring Star Wars back to the big screen after hiatus of seven years since release of ‘Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’.

The film is directed by Jon Favreau, with a screenplay written by Favreau, Dave Filoni, and Noah Kloor. It is produced by Favreau, Filoni, Kathleen Kennedy, and Ian Bryce, with music composed by Ludwig Göransson.

The feature film had a slightly smaller budget than typical Star Wars films, with the cost of production estimated at around $165 million. Other Star Wars projects released theatrically in the previous decade had production budgets of $250 million or higher, according to data from The Numbers.

Cast members include Pedro Pascal as The Mandalorian, Jeremy Allen White as Rotta the Hutt, Martin Scorsese as Hugo Durant, Sigourney Weaver as Colonel Ward, and Steve Blum as Zeb Orrelios.

The story takes place after the third season of the Disney+ series ‘The Mandalorian’ and revolves around Pedro Pascal’s Din Djarin and his green sidekick as they navigate a galaxy recovering from the fall of the Empire.

Weekend recovery

After the Thursday warning signs, the film picked up significantly over the weekend. Disney’s ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ ended up at $100 million at the domestic box office over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, slightly behind Sunday’s estimates of $102 million for the four-day frame, which included $81 million over the traditional three-day weekend.

At the international box office, ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ earned $64 million for a global start of $145 million over three days and $165 million over the four-day frame.

This debut is slightly lower than ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story”s global opening weekend performance of $168 million, including $103 million from domestic markets. Both films were released over Memorial Day weekend, making it easier to compare and contrast their box office results.

Lowest ‘Star Wars’ opening under Disney

Despite clearing $100 million domestically, the film still holds a specific record. ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ delivered the franchise’s lowest domestic box office debut since Disney’s acquisition of Lucasfilm.

Disney and Lucasfilm previously reached far greater heights with ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’, which once held the domestic opening weekend record at $247.9 million, as well as ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’, which debuted to $155 million domestically.

Compared to ‘Solo’, the film opened with $81 million over the weekend and an estimated $100 million through the holiday. That is lower than ‘Solo”s $84.4 million three-day start and its $103 million four-day holiday haul. However, ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu”s production budget of $165 million is notably lower than ‘Solo”s $250 million budget, giving it a lower break-even threshold.

Those close to Disney’s decision-making confirm the film needs to make $500 to $600 million globally to land in the black.

Where audiences stand

While critics were divided, audiences responded more warmly. The film holds an A- grade on CinemaScore, as well as an 89% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.

With over 5,000 ratings counted, ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ currently sits at an 89% fresh rating among audiences. That is the highest audience rating of any Star Wars movie released under Disney’s stewardship, which started with ‘The Force Awakens’ in 2015. The only Star Wars movies with higher audience scores are from the original trilogy.

On the critics’ side, director Jon Favreau’s film sits at a 62% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That places it roughly level with ‘Star Wars: Attack of the Clones’, which holds a 65% critics score.

The Memorial Day tentpole is showing particular strength among moviegoers under 13 and men over 55, a combination that reflects the film’s appeal to families drawn to Grogu and older viewers who enjoy Pedro Pascal’s Clint Eastwood-style persona.

Path to profitability

It would be reductive to declare the film an underperformer for several reasons. ‘The Rise of Skywalker’, released in 2019, cost nearly $600 million. ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ has a reported price tag of $165 million and a projected break-even point of between $500 million and $600 million worldwide. Even though the movie could not match its predecessors’ opening weekend hauls, it is on its way to potential success.

‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ is the first Star Wars movie since 2019’s ‘The Rise of Skywalker’, which earned $1 billion globally while concluding the nine-chapter Skywalker saga.

With international sales included, the film got off to a $165 million global start, slightly better than ‘Solo”s $155 million start, which ultimately led to a $392.9 million finish across the world. If ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ can reach that total, it will land in the territory of either a minor success or a minor failure.

For parent company Disney, it is not just about the box office numbers. The film has a robust consumer products launch tied to its release. Merchandise tied to Grogu in particular has been a consistent revenue stream for Lucasfilm since the character first appeared in 2019.

The film continues its run in theaters globally.

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